The big factor that will decide Wrexham promotion
Will Wrexham’s away form hurt their chances at a promotion? That’s the question after a win over Barnsley maintained the league-best home form on Tuesday night.
With less than a month remaining of 2024, there’s a lot to like about Wrexham’s League One campaign as they seek a historic third successive promotion.
A 1-0 win over Lincoln City last week vaulted them up to second in the table and into the automatic promotion spots, though Birmingham City, just a point behind after their win over Stockport County, have two games in hand.
While Phil Parkinson’s men are likely to exceed the low expectations that Opta set for them before the start of this season, there’s one thing that may need improving if this team are to remain in a top-two position: form on the road…
Wrexham’s home form
Undoubtedly, the Racecourse Ground has become a fortress, serving as a massive advantage for Wrexham once this season.
In nine League One home fixtures, the Red Dragons are undefeated, conceding just four goals and boasting a win percentage of 89%, per footystats.
After Tuesday night’s latest round of fixtures, only six other teams in the entire EFL pyramid have yet to lose on their home ground this season.
Meanwhile, Wrexham’s 28 domestic home points in 2024-25 are more than any side in the EFL.
Wrexham’s away form
The Red Dragons’ results away from home are perhaps the biggest cause for concern at the moment.
Wrexham have only managed two wins on their travels, picking up just nine points from eight away league games so far this season.
That ranks 13th among teams in the third tier, with Parkinson’s side scoring just six goals in the league away from the Racecourse Ground.
They are currently averaging 1.63 points per game as the visitors, the second lowest rate thus far behind Stevenage (1.57), who inflicted defeat on Wrexham earlier in the season.
League One away history
Wrexham may be in line for a promotion for now, but history in this league suggests that their away form needs to improve if they are to remain in that spot come season’s end.
Since the 2009-10 League One season, only two teams have managed a lower points-per-game average on the road than Wrexham currently have and managed to finish in the top two.
Peterborough averaged just 1.61 points per match in 2020-21 but still finished second that season, two points below Hull City.
Brentford only had a 1.57 points per away game in 2013-14 but still ended the campaign with an impressive 94 points, good enough to claim second.
Over their past 10 domestic campaigns, Wrexham have only averaged above 1.70 points per game as the visitors once, in their National League title-winning season in 2022-23 (1.91)
In League Two a season ago, they wound up second despite averaging a mere 1.48 points per game away from the Racecourse.
